Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls on 12 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Columbus Crew at 48.2%.
- Columbus Crew: 48.2%.
- New York Red Bulls: 27.3%.
- Draw: 24.5%.
- Columbus Crew are 13th in the table, New York Red Bulls 10th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Columbus Crew take on New York Red Bulls on 12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Columbus Crew come into this 13th in the Major League Soccer table with 23 points; New York Red Bulls are 10th on 27 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 48.2% |
| New York Red Bulls | 27.3% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Columbus Crew bring a record of 3-2-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. New York Red Bulls bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded.
When these two have met
3 previous meetings split 1-1-1 in Columbus Crew's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 13 May 2026: New York Red Bulls 3-2 Columbus Crew, New York Red Bulls taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Columbus Crew — Profile, squad and fixtures
- New York Red Bulls — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Columbus Crew or New York Red Bulls?
The MatchSense model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 48.2%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Columbus Crew and New York Red Bulls play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Columbus Crew played New York Red Bulls?
They last met on 13 May 2026, New York Red Bulls 3-2 Columbus Crew. Across 3 meetings, Columbus Crew have won 1, New York Red Bulls 1, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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