Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026

Columbus Crew take on New York Red Bulls on 12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

Columbus Crew come into this 13th in the Major League Soccer table with 23 points; New York Red Bulls are 12th on 27 points, a single place apart.

Who does the model favour?

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

What each side brings into this

Columbus Crew come in with 6 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. New York Red Bulls have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.7 conceded.

When these two have met

3 previous meetings split 1-1-1 in Columbus Crew's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 13 May 2026: New York Red Bulls 3-2 Columbus Crew, New York Red Bulls taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

• Full Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
• Major League Soccer table and fixtures
• Columbus Crew — Profile, squad and fixtures
• New York Red Bulls — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.