Auxerre vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Auxerre vs Nice on 12 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Auxerre at 35.0%.
Auxerre: 35.0%.
Nice: 33.9%.
Draw: 31.1%.
Auxerre are 18th in the table, Nice 15th.
These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Auxerre host Nice on 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Ligue 1. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

Auxerre sit 18th in the Ligue 1 table on 0 points from 3 games, with Nice 15th on 2 points.

Who does the model favour?

Outcome	Model probability
Auxerre	35.0%
Nice	33.9%
Draw	31.1%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

How both sides arrive

Across their last 10, Auxerre show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. Nice bring a record of 1-7-2 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.

The head-to-head

Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to Auxerre, 1 to Nice, 1 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 10 May 2026: Auxerre 2-1 Nice, Auxerre taking it.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Auxerre vs Nice analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Ligue 1 table and fixtures
Auxerre — Profile, squad and fixtures
Nice — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Auxerre or Nice?

The MatchSense model gives Auxerre the highest probability at 35.0%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do Auxerre and Nice play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Ligue 1.

What happened the last time Auxerre played Nice?

They last met on 10 May 2026, Auxerre 2-1 Nice. Across 3 meetings, Auxerre have won 1, Nice 1, with 1 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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