Auxerre vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Auxerre vs Nice on 12 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Auxerre at 37.6%.
- Auxerre: 37.6%.
- Nice: 34.5%.
- Draw: 28.0%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Auxerre are 18th in the table, Nice 15th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Auxerre host Nice on 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Ligue 1. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Auxerre sit 18th in the Ligue 1 table on 0 points from 3 games, with Nice 15th on 2 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Auxerre | 37.6% |
| Nice | 34.5% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Across their last 10, Auxerre show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. Nice bring a record of 1-7-2 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to Auxerre, 1 to Nice, 1 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 10 May 2026: Auxerre 2-1 Nice, Auxerre taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Auxerre vs Nice analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Ligue 1 table and fixtures
- Auxerre — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Nice — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Auxerre or Nice?
The MatchSense model gives Auxerre the highest probability at 37.6%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Auxerre and Nice play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Ligue 1.
Which markets are analysed for Auxerre vs Nice?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Auxerre played Nice?
They last met on 10 May 2026, Auxerre 2-1 Nice. Across 3 meetings, Auxerre have won 1, Nice 1, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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