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FOOTBALLLigue 1match-preview16/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction — Model Probabilities for 20 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 on 20 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Stade Brestois 29 at 40.7%.
  • Stade Brestois 29: 40.7%.
  • Auxerre: 34.5%.
  • Draw: 24.9%.
  • 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Auxerre are 16th in the table, Stade Brestois 29 9th.
  • These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Auxerre take on Stade Brestois 29 on 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Ligue 1. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

In the Ligue 1 table, Auxerre are 16th and Stade Brestois 29 9th, 2 points between them.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Stade Brestois 2940.7%
Auxerre34.5%
Draw24.9%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

Recent form

Auxerre have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Stade Brestois 29 have not won in 10 attempts, averaging 1.3 scored and 2.1 conceded.

The head-to-head

The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 4 January 2026: Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Auxerre, Stade Brestois 29 taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Auxerre or Stade Brestois 29?

The MatchSense model gives Stade Brestois 29 the highest probability at 40.7%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Ligue 1.

Which markets are analysed for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Auxerre played Stade Brestois 29?

They last met on 4 January 2026, Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Auxerre. Across both meetings, Auxerre have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 1, with 1 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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