Benfica vs GIL Vicente Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Benfica vs GIL Vicente on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Benfica at 82.0%.
Benfica: 82.0%.
Draw: 12.1%.
GIL Vicente: 6.0%.
Benfica are 4th in the table, GIL Vicente 6th.
These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Benfica host GIL Vicente on 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC in Primeira Liga. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

In the Primeira Liga table, Benfica are 4th and GIL Vicente 6th, 3 points between them.

The model's read

Outcome	Model probability
Benfica	82.0%
Draw	12.1%
GIL Vicente	6.0%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

Recent form

Benfica arrive on a run of 4 straight wins, scoring 2.9 a game. GIL Vicente bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Benfica vs GIL Vicente analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Primeira Liga table and fixtures
Benfica — Profile, squad and fixtures
GIL Vicente — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Benfica or GIL Vicente?

The MatchSense model gives Benfica the highest probability at 82.0%. That makes it the model's firm call, with the balance spread across the rest.

When do Benfica and GIL Vicente play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC in Primeira Liga.

What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in?

Benfica arrive on a run of 4 straight wins, scoring 2.9 a game. GIL Vicente have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How accurate are these probabilities?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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