Benfica vs GIL Vicente Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Benfica vs GIL Vicente on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Benfica at 80.4%.
- Benfica: 80.4%.
- Draw: 12.8%.
- GIL Vicente: 6.7%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Benfica are 2nd in the table, GIL Vicente 8th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Benfica host GIL Vicente on 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC in Primeira Liga. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Primeira Liga table, Benfica are 2nd and GIL Vicente 8th, 6 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Benfica | 80.4% |
| Draw | 12.8% |
| GIL Vicente | 6.7% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Benfica arrive on a run of 5 straight wins, scoring 2.9 a game. GIL Vicente bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Benfica vs GIL Vicente analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Primeira Liga table and fixtures
- Benfica — Profile, squad and fixtures
- GIL Vicente — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Benfica or GIL Vicente?
The MatchSense model gives Benfica the highest probability at 80.4%. That makes it the model's firm call, with the balance spread across the rest.
When do Benfica and GIL Vicente play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC in Primeira Liga.
Which markets are analysed for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in?
Benfica arrive on a run of 5 straight wins, scoring 2.9 a game. GIL Vicente have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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