Estrela vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Estrela vs Casa Pia on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Estrela at 50.6%.
- Estrela: 50.6%.
- Draw: 26.9%.
- Casa Pia: 22.4%.
- Estrela are 10th in the table, Casa Pia 17th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Estrela take on Casa Pia on 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC in Primeira Liga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Estrela come into this 10th in the Primeira Liga table with 10 points; Casa Pia are 17th on 4 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Estrela | 50.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
| Casa Pia | 22.4% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Estrela bring a record of 3-5-2 from their last 10, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. Casa Pia have lost 6 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
When these two have met
5 previous meetings split 3-0-2 in Estrela's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 20 March 2026: Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia, Estrela taking it.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Estrela vs Casa Pia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Primeira Liga table and fixtures
- Estrela — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Casa Pia — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Estrela or Casa Pia?
The MatchSense model gives Estrela the highest probability at 50.6%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Estrela and Casa Pia play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC in Primeira Liga.
What happened the last time Estrela played Casa Pia?
They last met on 20 March 2026, Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia. Across 5 meetings, Estrela have won 3, Casa Pia 2, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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