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FOOTBALLLiga 1match-preview17/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Bhayangkara FC vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction — Model Probabilities for 20 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Bhayangkara FC vs PSIM Yogyakarta on 20 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Bhayangkara FC at 50.9%.
  • Bhayangkara FC: 50.9%.
  • Draw: 27.6%.
  • PSIM Yogyakarta: 21.5%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • Bhayangkara FC are 8th in the table, PSIM Yogyakarta 16th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Bhayangkara FC take on PSIM Yogyakarta on 20 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

Bhayangkara FC come into this 8th in the Liga 1 table with 7 points; PSIM Yogyakarta are 16th on 1 point — 8 places apart in a 22-team competition.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Bhayangkara FC50.9%
Draw27.6%
PSIM Yogyakarta21.5%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

How both sides arrive

Bhayangkara FC are unbeaten in 6, scoring 2.4 a game. PSIM Yogyakarta come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

The head-to-head

The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 17 April 2026: Bhayangkara FC 2-1 PSIM Yogyakarta, Bhayangkara FC taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Bhayangkara FC or PSIM Yogyakarta?

The MatchSense model gives Bhayangkara FC the highest probability at 50.9%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do Bhayangkara FC and PSIM Yogyakarta play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 20 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1.

Which markets are analysed for Bhayangkara FC vs PSIM Yogyakarta?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Bhayangkara FC played PSIM Yogyakarta?

They last met on 17 April 2026, Bhayangkara FC 2-1 PSIM Yogyakarta. Across both meetings, Bhayangkara FC have won 1, PSIM Yogyakarta 1, with 0 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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