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FOOTBALLLiga 1match-preview19/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Persepam Madura Utd vs Persib Bandung Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Persepam Madura Utd vs Persib Bandung on 22 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Persib Bandung at 48.0%.
  • Persib Bandung: 48.0%.
  • Draw: 28.1%.
  • Persepam Madura Utd: 23.9%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Persepam Madura Utd are 4th in the table, Persib Bandung 5th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Persepam Madura Utd take on Persib Bandung on 22 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Persepam Madura Utd come into this 4th in the Liga 1 table with 10 points; Persib Bandung are 5th on 10 points, a single place apart.

What the model makes of it

OutcomeModel probability
Persib Bandung48.0%
Draw28.1%
Persepam Madura Utd23.9%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

How both sides arrive

Persepam Madura Utd have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Persib Bandung have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.

Previous meetings

3 previous meetings split 0-1-2 in Persepam Madura Utd's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 26 February 2026: Persib Bandung 5-0 Persepam Madura Utd, Persib Bandung taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Where the numbers come from

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Persepam Madura Utd or Persib Bandung?

The MatchSense model gives Persib Bandung the highest probability at 48.0%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do Persepam Madura Utd and Persib Bandung play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 22 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1.

Which markets are analysed for Persepam Madura Utd vs Persib Bandung?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Persepam Madura Utd played Persib Bandung?

They last met on 26 February 2026, Persib Bandung 5-0 Persepam Madura Utd. Across 3 meetings, Persepam Madura Utd have won 0, Persib Bandung 2, with 1 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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