Bologna vs Torino Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Bologna vs Torino on 19 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Bologna at 52.6%.
- Bologna: 52.6%.
- Draw: 24.3%.
- Torino: 23.1%.
- Bologna are 16th in the table, Torino 14th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Bologna take on Torino on 19 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Bologna come into this 16th in the Serie A table with 1 point; Torino are 14th on 3 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bologna | 52.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Torino | 23.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Bologna have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Torino have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded.
The head-to-head
Bologna lead the series 3-1-0. The most recent meeting came on 15 February 2026: Torino 1-2 Bologna, Bologna taking it.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Bologna vs Torino analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Bologna — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Torino — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Bologna or Torino?
The MatchSense model gives Bologna the highest probability at 52.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Bologna and Torino play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A.
What happened the last time Bologna played Torino?
They last met on 15 February 2026, Torino 1-2 Bologna. Across 4 meetings, Bologna have won 3, Torino 0, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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