AS Roma vs Inter Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for AS Roma vs Inter on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is AS Roma at 38.9%.
- AS Roma: 38.9%.
- Inter: 33.3%.
- Draw: 27.8%.
- AS Roma are 1st in the table, Inter 2nd.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
AS Roma take on Inter on 19 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Serie A table, AS Roma are 1st and Inter 2nd, level on points between them, a single place apart.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 38.9% |
| Inter | 33.3% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
AS Roma are unbeaten in 10, scoring 2.6 a game. Inter have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, scoring 2.5 a game.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full AS Roma vs Inter analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- AS Roma — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Inter — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, AS Roma or Inter?
The MatchSense model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 38.9%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do AS Roma and Inter play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A.
What form are AS Roma and Inter in?
AS Roma are unbeaten in 10, scoring 2.6 a game. Inter have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, scoring 2.5 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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