Udinese vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Udinese vs Cagliari on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Udinese at 38.4%.
- Udinese: 38.4%.
- Cagliari: 37.3%.
- Draw: 24.4%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Udinese are 13th in the table, Cagliari 5th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Udinese welcome Cagliari on 19 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Serie A table, Udinese are 13th and Cagliari 5th, 5 points between them — 8 places apart in a 20-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Udinese | 38.4% |
| Cagliari | 37.3% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
Udinese bring a record of 3-2-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Cagliari have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
Udinese have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of 5. They last met on 9 May 2026: Cagliari 0-2 Udinese, Udinese taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Udinese vs Cagliari analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Udinese — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Cagliari — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Udinese or Cagliari?
The MatchSense model gives Udinese the highest probability at 38.4%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Udinese and Cagliari play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for Udinese vs Cagliari?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Udinese played Cagliari?
They last met on 9 May 2026, Cagliari 0-2 Udinese. Across 5 meetings, Udinese have won 3, Cagliari 0, with 2 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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