Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Bournemouth vs Sunderland on 18 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Bournemouth at 42.0%.
- Bournemouth: 42.0%.
- Draw: 29.6%.
- Sunderland: 28.4%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Bournemouth are 19th in the table, Sunderland 18th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Bournemouth welcome Sunderland on 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Premier League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Premier League table, Bournemouth are 19th and Sunderland 18th, a point between them, a single place apart.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 42.0% |
| Draw | 29.6% |
| Sunderland | 28.4% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Bournemouth bring a record of 2-5-3 from their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded. Sunderland bring a record of 5-1-4 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 28 February 2026, Bournemouth drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Bournemouth vs Sunderland analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Bournemouth — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Sunderland — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Bournemouth or Sunderland?
The MatchSense model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 42.0%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Bournemouth and Sunderland play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Premier League.
Which markets are analysed for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Bournemouth played Sunderland?
They last met on 28 February 2026, Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland. Across both meetings, Bournemouth have won 0, Sunderland 1, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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