Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities for 16 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers on 16 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Wolverhampton Wanderers at 37.5%.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 37.5%.
- Burnley: 34.7%.
- Draw: 27.8%.
- Burnley are 22nd in the table, Wolverhampton Wanderers 5th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Burnley host Wolverhampton Wanderers on 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in Championship. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Championship table, Burnley are 22nd and Wolverhampton Wanderers 5th, 7 points between them — 17 places apart in a 24-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 37.5% |
| Burnley | 34.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Across their last 10, Burnley show 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.9 conceded. Wolverhampton Wanderers bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 24 May 2026, Burnley drawing 1-1.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Wolverhampton Wanderers — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Burnley or Wolverhampton Wanderers?
The MatchSense model gives Wolverhampton Wanderers the highest probability at 37.5%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in Championship.
What happened the last time Burnley played Wolverhampton Wanderers?
They last met on 24 May 2026, Burnley 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers. In their one previous meeting, Burnley have won 0, Wolverhampton Wanderers 0, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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