Burnley vs Wolves Prediction — Model Probabilities for 16 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Burnley vs Wolves on 16 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Wolves at 36.4%.
- Wolves: 36.4%.
- Burnley: 35.3%.
- Draw: 28.3%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Burnley are 21st in the table, Wolves 10th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Burnley host Wolves on 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in Championship. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Championship table, Burnley are 21st and Wolves 10th, 6 points between them — 11 places apart in a 24-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Wolves | 36.4% |
| Burnley | 35.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Across their last 10, Burnley show 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.9 conceded. Wolves bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 26 October 2025: Wolves 2-3 Burnley, Burnley taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Burnley vs Wolves analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Wolves — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Burnley or Wolves?
The MatchSense model gives Wolves the highest probability at 36.4%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Burnley and Wolves play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for Burnley vs Wolves?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Burnley played Wolves?
They last met on 26 October 2025, Wolves 2-3 Burnley. In their one previous meeting, Burnley have won 1, Wolves 0, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Wolves vs Portsmouth Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 20 October 2026
- Wolves vs Watford Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- QPR vs Swansea Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- West Ham vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026