Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Cagliari vs Bologna on 24 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Bologna at 37.5%.
- Bologna: 37.5%.
- Draw: 32.5%.
- Cagliari: 30.0%.
- Cagliari are 7th in the table, Bologna 15th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Cagliari take on Bologna on 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Serie A table, Cagliari are 7th and Bologna 15th, 8 points between them — 8 places apart in a 20-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bologna | 37.5% |
| Draw | 32.5% |
| Cagliari | 30.0% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Across their last 10, Cagliari show 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 4 clean sheets. Bologna bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Previous meetings
Bologna have dominated the meetings, taking 3 of 4. They last met on 3 May 2026, Bologna drawing 0-0.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Cagliari vs Bologna analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Cagliari — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Bologna — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Cagliari or Bologna?
The MatchSense model gives Bologna the highest probability at 37.5%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Cagliari and Bologna play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A.
What happened the last time Cagliari played Bologna?
They last met on 3 May 2026, Bologna 0-0 Cagliari. Across 4 meetings, Cagliari have won 0, Bologna 3, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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