Cardiff vs Charlton Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Cardiff vs Charlton on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Cardiff at 52.5%.
- Cardiff: 52.5%.
- Draw: 24.6%.
- Charlton: 22.9%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Cardiff are 21st in the table, Charlton 7th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Cardiff take on Charlton on 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC in Championship. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Championship table, Cardiff are 21st and Charlton 7th, 8 points between them — 14 places apart in a 24-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | 52.5% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Charlton | 22.9% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Across their last 10, Cardiff show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.7 conceded. Charlton bring a record of 3-4-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Cardiff vs Charlton analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Cardiff — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Charlton — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Cardiff or Charlton?
The MatchSense model gives Cardiff the highest probability at 52.5%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Cardiff and Charlton play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for Cardiff vs Charlton?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Cardiff and Charlton in?
Cardiff bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.7 conceded. Across their last 10, Charlton show 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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