Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC on 17 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Celtic at 61.6%.
- Celtic: 61.6%.
- Draw: 20.3%.
- Ferencvarosi TC: 18.6%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Celtic come in on 8-0-2 from their last 10.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Celtic host Ferencvarosi TC on 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Celtic | 61.6% |
| Draw | 20.3% |
| Ferencvarosi TC | 18.6% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
Across their last 10, Celtic show 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 2.1 a game. Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in 4, keeping 5 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Celtic — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Ferencvarosi TC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Celtic or Ferencvarosi TC?
The MatchSense model gives Celtic the highest probability at 61.6%. That makes it the model's firm call, with the balance spread across the rest.
When do Celtic and Ferencvarosi TC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
Which markets are analysed for Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Celtic and Ferencvarosi TC in?
Across their last 10, Celtic show 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 2.1 a game. Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in 4, keeping 5 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
- Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
- Real Sociedad vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026