CF Montreal vs Charlotte Prediction — Model Probabilities for 9 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for CF Montreal vs Charlotte on 9 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is CF Montreal at 39.2%.
CF Montreal: 39.2%.
Charlotte: 35.5%.
Draw: 25.3%.
1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
CF Montreal are 15th in the table, Charlotte 5th.
These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

CF Montreal take on Charlotte on 9 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

CF Montreal come into this 15th in the Major League Soccer table with 21 points; Charlotte are 5th on 36 points — 10 places apart in a 15-team competition.

What the model makes of it

Outcome	Model probability
CF Montreal	39.2%
Charlotte	35.5%
Draw	25.3%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

How both sides arrive

CF Montreal bring a record of 1-5-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.1 conceded. Charlotte are unbeaten in 5, scoring 2.0 a game.

When these two have met

The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 27 September 2025: Charlotte 1-4 CF Montreal, CF Montreal taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full CF Montreal vs Charlotte analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Major League Soccer table and fixtures
CF Montreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
Charlotte — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, CF Montreal or Charlotte?

The MatchSense model gives CF Montreal the highest probability at 39.2%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do CF Montreal and Charlotte play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 9 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for CF Montreal vs Charlotte?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time CF Montreal played Charlotte?

They last met on 27 September 2025, Charlotte 1-4 CF Montreal. Across both meetings, CF Montreal have won 1, Charlotte 1, with 0 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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