Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Philadelphia Union at 56.3%.
- Philadelphia Union: 56.3%.
- Draw: 22.5%.
- New England Revolution: 21.1%.
- Philadelphia Union are 6th in the table, New England Revolution 3rd.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Philadelphia Union host New England Revolution on 24 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Philadelphia Union sit 6th in the Major League Soccer table on 46 points from 30 games, with New England Revolution 3rd on 52 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 56.3% |
| Draw | 22.5% |
| New England Revolution | 21.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Philadelphia Union have gone 10 matches without defeat, scoring 3.1 a game. New England Revolution have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, averaging 1.7 scored and 1.6 conceded.
When these two have met
Philadelphia Union have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of 4. They last met on 9 May 2026: New England Revolution 2-1 Philadelphia Union, New England Revolution taking it.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Philadelphia Union — Profile, squad and fixtures
- New England Revolution — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Philadelphia Union or New England Revolution?
The MatchSense model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 56.3%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Philadelphia Union played New England Revolution?
They last met on 9 May 2026, New England Revolution 2-1 Philadelphia Union. Across 4 meetings, Philadelphia Union have won 3, New England Revolution 1, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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