Skip to main content
MatchSenseAI Sport Analysis
News
Back to newsBaca dalam Bahasa Indonesia
FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview15/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Columbus Crew at 35.5%.
  • Columbus Crew: 35.5%.
  • CF Montreal: 35.1%.
  • Draw: 29.4%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • CF Montreal are 15th in the table, Columbus Crew 13th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

CF Montreal host Columbus Crew on 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

In the Major League Soccer table, CF Montreal are 15th and Columbus Crew 13th, 2 points between them.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
Columbus Crew35.5%
CF Montreal35.1%
Draw29.4%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

How both sides arrive

CF Montreal have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 2.0 conceded. Columbus Crew come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded.

Previous meetings

Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to CF Montreal, 1 to Columbus Crew, 1 drawn. They last met on 19 August 2026: Columbus Crew 1-2 CF Montreal, CF Montreal taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

Where the numbers come from

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, CF Montreal or Columbus Crew?

The MatchSense model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 35.5%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do CF Montreal and Columbus Crew play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time CF Montreal played Columbus Crew?

They last met on 19 August 2026, Columbus Crew 1-2 CF Montreal. Across 3 meetings, CF Montreal have won 1, Columbus Crew 1, with 1 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

Get the weekly briefing

Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.

We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.

Related reading