CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is CF Montreal at 36.5%.
- CF Montreal: 36.5%.
- Columbus Crew: 34.8%.
- Draw: 28.7%.
- CF Montreal are 15th in the table, Columbus Crew 13th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
CF Montreal host Columbus Crew on 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Major League Soccer table, CF Montreal are 15th and Columbus Crew 13th, 2 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 36.5% |
| Columbus Crew | 34.8% |
| Draw | 28.7% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
CF Montreal have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 2.0 conceded. Columbus Crew come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded.
Previous meetings
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to CF Montreal, 1 to Columbus Crew, 1 drawn. They last met on 19 August 2026: Columbus Crew 1-2 CF Montreal, CF Montreal taking it.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- CF Montreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Columbus Crew — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, CF Montreal or Columbus Crew?
The MatchSense model gives CF Montreal the highest probability at 36.5%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do CF Montreal and Columbus Crew play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time CF Montreal played Columbus Crew?
They last met on 19 August 2026, Columbus Crew 1-2 CF Montreal. Across 3 meetings, CF Montreal have won 1, Columbus Crew 1, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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