Charlton vs QPR Prediction — Model Probabilities for 9 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Charlton vs QPR on 9 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is QPR at 40.1%.
- QPR: 40.1%.
- Charlton: 32.0%.
- Draw: 27.9%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Charlton are 7th in the table, QPR 4th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Charlton welcome QPR on 9 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Championship. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Charlton come into this 7th in the Championship table with 10 points; QPR are 4th on 10 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| QPR | 40.1% |
| Charlton | 32.0% |
| Draw | 27.9% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Charlton bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded. QPR bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 6 February 2026, Charlton drawing 0-0.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Charlton vs QPR analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Charlton — Profile, squad and fixtures
- QPR — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Charlton or QPR?
The MatchSense model gives QPR the highest probability at 40.1%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Charlton and QPR play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 9 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for Charlton vs QPR?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Charlton played QPR?
They last met on 6 February 2026, Charlton 0-0 QPR. Across both meetings, Charlton have won 0, QPR 1, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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