Skip to main content
MatchSenseAI Sport Analysis
News
Back to newsBaca dalam Bahasa Indonesia
FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview09/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution on 13 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Chicago Fire at 46.1%.
  • Chicago Fire: 46.1%.
  • New England Revolution: 27.6%.
  • Draw: 26.3%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Chicago Fire are 5th in the table, New England Revolution 3rd.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Chicago Fire welcome New England Revolution on 13 September 2026, 21:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

Chicago Fire sit 5th in the Major League Soccer table on 39 points from 23 games, with New England Revolution 3rd on 40 points.

What the model makes of it

OutcomeModel probability
Chicago Fire46.1%
New England Revolution27.6%
Draw26.3%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

What each side brings into this

Chicago Fire are unbeaten in 7, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.8 conceded. New England Revolution bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.

Previous meetings

The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 18 October 2025, New England Revolution drawing 2-2.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Chicago Fire or New England Revolution?

The MatchSense model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 46.1%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do Chicago Fire and New England Revolution play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 21:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Chicago Fire played New England Revolution?

They last met on 18 October 2025, New England Revolution 2-2 Chicago Fire. Across both meetings, Chicago Fire have won 1, New England Revolution 0, with 1 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

Get the weekly briefing

Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.

We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.

Related reading