Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution on 13 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Chicago Fire at 51.7%.
- Chicago Fire: 51.7%.
- New England Revolution: 25.0%.
- Draw: 23.4%.
- Chicago Fire are 3rd in the table, New England Revolution 4th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Chicago Fire welcome New England Revolution on 13 September 2026, 21:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Chicago Fire sit 3rd in the Major League Soccer table on 38 points from 22 games, with New England Revolution 4th on 37 points, a single place apart.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 51.7% |
| New England Revolution | 25.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Chicago Fire are unbeaten in 6, scoring 2.0 a game. New England Revolution bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 18 October 2025, New England Revolution drawing 2-2.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Chicago Fire — Profile, squad and fixtures
- New England Revolution — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Chicago Fire or New England Revolution?
The MatchSense model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 51.7%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Chicago Fire and New England Revolution play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 21:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Chicago Fire played New England Revolution?
They last met on 18 October 2025, New England Revolution 2-2 Chicago Fire. Across both meetings, Chicago Fire have won 1, New England Revolution 0, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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