Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal on 13 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Colorado Rapids at 54.4%.
- Colorado Rapids: 54.4%.
- Draw: 24.4%.
- CF Montreal: 22.7%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Colorado Rapids come in on 5-1-4 from their last 10.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Colorado Rapids take on CF Montreal on 13 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 54.4% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| CF Montreal | 22.7% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Colorado Rapids have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. CF Montreal have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Colorado Rapids — Profile, squad and fixtures
- CF Montreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Colorado Rapids or CF Montreal?
The MatchSense model gives Colorado Rapids the highest probability at 54.4%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Colorado Rapids and CF Montreal play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Colorado Rapids and CF Montreal in?
Colorado Rapids have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. CF Montreal have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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