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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview11/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Columbus Crew vs Charlotte Prediction — Model Probabilities for 14 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Columbus Crew vs Charlotte on 14 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Columbus Crew at 46.3%.
  • Columbus Crew: 46.3%.
  • Charlotte: 28.5%.
  • Draw: 25.2%.
  • 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Columbus Crew are 13th in the table, Charlotte 5th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Columbus Crew host Charlotte on 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

In the Major League Soccer table, Columbus Crew are 13th and Charlotte 5th, 17 points between them — 8 places apart in a 15-team competition.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Columbus Crew46.3%
Charlotte28.5%
Draw25.2%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

How both sides arrive

Columbus Crew come in with 7 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Charlotte have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, scoring 2.1 a game.

When these two have met

4 previous meetings split 1-1-2 in Columbus Crew's favour on the head-to-head. The most recent meeting came on 15 August 2026: Charlotte 3-1 Columbus Crew, Charlotte taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Where the numbers come from

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Columbus Crew or Charlotte?

The MatchSense model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 46.3%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do Columbus Crew and Charlotte play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for Columbus Crew vs Charlotte?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Columbus Crew played Charlotte?

They last met on 15 August 2026, Charlotte 3-1 Columbus Crew. Across 4 meetings, Columbus Crew have won 1, Charlotte 2, with 1 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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