Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities for 27 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution on 27 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Real Salt Lake at 40.7%.
- Real Salt Lake: 40.7%.
- New England Revolution: 32.1%.
- Draw: 27.2%.
- Real Salt Lake come in on 0-3-7 from their last 10.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Real Salt Lake host New England Revolution on 27 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | 40.7% |
| New England Revolution | 32.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
How both sides arrive
Real Salt Lake have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. New England Revolution arrive on a run of 3 straight wins, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Real Salt Lake — Profile, squad and fixtures
- New England Revolution — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Real Salt Lake or New England Revolution?
The MatchSense model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 40.7%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Real Salt Lake and New England Revolution play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 27 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What form are Real Salt Lake and New England Revolution in?
Real Salt Lake have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. New England Revolution come in having won 3 in a row, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.4 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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