Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest on 11 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Crystal Palace at 37.4%.
- Crystal Palace: 37.4%.
- Nottingham Forest: 32.4%.
- Draw: 30.2%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Crystal Palace are 15th in the table, Nottingham Forest 13th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Crystal Palace take on Nottingham Forest on 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Premier League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Crystal Palace come into this 15th in the Premier League table with 4 points; Nottingham Forest are 13th on 5 points.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 37.4% |
| Nottingham Forest | 32.4% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Crystal Palace have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Nottingham Forest have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 1 February 2026, Nottingham Forest drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Crystal Palace — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Nottingham Forest — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest?
The MatchSense model gives Crystal Palace the highest probability at 37.4%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Premier League.
Which markets are analysed for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Crystal Palace played Nottingham Forest?
They last met on 1 February 2026, Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace. Across both meetings, Crystal Palace have won 0, Nottingham Forest 1, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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