DC United vs Charlotte Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for DC United vs Charlotte on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Charlotte at 37.5%.
- Charlotte: 37.5%.
- DC United: 33.4%.
- Draw: 29.1%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- DC United are 11th in the table, Charlotte 4th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
DC United take on Charlotte on 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Major League Soccer table, DC United are 11th and Charlotte 4th, 11 points between them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Charlotte | 37.5% |
| DC United | 33.4% |
| Draw | 29.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
DC United bring a record of 2-6-2 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Charlotte stretch an unbeaten run of 7 into this one, scoring 2.1 a game.
The head-to-head
It is Charlotte who lead this one 3-0-0. They last met on 22 August 2026: Charlotte 3-1 DC United, Charlotte taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full DC United vs Charlotte analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- DC United — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Charlotte — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, DC United or Charlotte?
The MatchSense model gives Charlotte the highest probability at 37.5%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do DC United and Charlotte play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for DC United vs Charlotte?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time DC United played Charlotte?
They last met on 22 August 2026, Charlotte 3-1 DC United. Across 3 meetings, DC United have won 0, Charlotte 3, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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