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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview11/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

DC United vs New York Red Bulls Prediction — Model Probabilities for 14 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for DC United vs New York Red Bulls on 14 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is DC United at 38.3%.
  • DC United: 38.3%.
  • New York Red Bulls: 35.2%.
  • Draw: 26.5%.
  • 4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • DC United are 12th in the table, New York Red Bulls 8th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

DC United welcome New York Red Bulls on 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

In the Major League Soccer table, DC United are 12th and New York Red Bulls 8th, 6 points between them.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
DC United38.3%
New York Red Bulls35.2%
Draw26.5%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

Recent form

DC United have won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, New York Red Bulls show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.

When these two have met

Across 5 meetings it is close: 1 to DC United, 2 to New York Red Bulls, 2 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 22 April 2026, New York Red Bulls drawing 4-4.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, DC United or New York Red Bulls?

The MatchSense model gives DC United the highest probability at 38.3%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do DC United and New York Red Bulls play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time DC United played New York Red Bulls?

They last met on 22 April 2026, New York Red Bulls 4-4 DC United. Across 5 meetings, DC United have won 1, New York Red Bulls 2, with 2 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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