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FOOTBALLLa Ligamatch-preview12/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante Prediction — Model Probabilities for 16 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante on 16 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Deportivo La Coruna at 46.2%.
  • Deportivo La Coruna: 46.2%.
  • Draw: 27.5%.
  • Levante: 26.3%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • Deportivo La Coruna are 8th in the table, Levante 17th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Deportivo La Coruna take on Levante on 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in La Liga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

Deportivo La Coruna sit 8th in the La Liga table on 10 points from 8 games, with Levante 17th on 6 points — 9 places apart in a 20-team competition.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Deportivo La Coruna46.2%
Draw27.5%
Levante26.3%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

How both sides arrive

Across their last 10, Deportivo La Coruna show 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded. Levante bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Deportivo La Coruna or Levante?

The MatchSense model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 46.2%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do Deportivo La Coruna and Levante play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in La Liga.

Which markets are analysed for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are Deportivo La Coruna and Levante in?

Deportivo La Coruna have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded. Levante bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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