Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla Prediction — Model Probabilities for 16 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla on 16 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Deportivo La Coruna at 37.3%.
- Deportivo La Coruna: 37.3%.
- Sevilla: 32.7%.
- Draw: 30.1%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Deportivo La Coruna are 7th in the table, Sevilla 6th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Deportivo La Coruna take on Sevilla on 16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC in La Liga. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Deportivo La Coruna sit 7th in the La Liga table on 9 points from 5 games, with Sevilla 6th on 10 points, a single place apart.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 37.3% |
| Sevilla | 32.7% |
| Draw | 30.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Deportivo La Coruna are unbeaten in 5, keeping 2 clean sheets. Sevilla bring a record of 6-1-3 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Deportivo La Coruna — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Sevilla — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Deportivo La Coruna or Sevilla?
The MatchSense model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 37.3%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC in La Liga.
Which markets are analysed for Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla in?
Deportivo La Coruna stretch an unbeaten run of 5 into this one, keeping 2 clean sheets. Sevilla have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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