FOOTBALLChampionshipmatch-recap28/08/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Derby vs Cardiff Result: 2-2 — How the Model Called It, 22 August 2026
Derby vs Cardiff finished 2-2 on 22 August 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
- Result: A draw.
- The model gave this outcome a 34.2% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Derby 2-2 Cardiff in Championship, 22 August 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Derby vs Cardiff these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Derby | 43.5% |
| Draw | 34.2% |
| Cardiff | 22.3% |
The model made Derby the most likely outcome at 43.5%. What happened was a draw, which it gave 34.2%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Derby vs Cardiff analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Cardiff — Profile, squad and fixtures
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