FOOTBALLChampionshipmatch-recap17/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Derby vs Stoke City Result: 0-1 — How the Model Called It, 17 October 2026
Derby vs Stoke City finished 0-1 on 17 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Derby 0-1 Stoke City.
- Result: Stoke City.
- The model gave this outcome a 34.2% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Derby 0-1 Stoke City in Championship, 17 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Derby vs Stoke City these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Derby | 37.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% |
| Stoke City | 34.2% |
The model made Derby the most likely outcome at 37.2%. What happened was Stoke City, which it gave 34.2%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Derby vs Stoke City analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Stoke City — Profile, squad and fixtures
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