Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC on 11 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Dewa United at 69.7%.
- Dewa United: 69.7%.
- Draw: 17.4%.
- Bhayangkara FC: 12.9%.
- Dewa United are 6th in the table, Bhayangkara FC 10th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Dewa United welcome Bhayangkara FC on 11 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Liga 1 table, Dewa United are 6th and Bhayangkara FC 10th, 2 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Dewa United | 69.7% |
| Draw | 17.4% |
| Bhayangkara FC | 12.9% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Dewa United bring a record of 7-1-2 from their last 10, conceding just 0.6 a game. Across their last 10, Bhayangkara FC show 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats, scoring 2.2 a game.
The head-to-head
The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 1 March 2026: Dewa United 0-2 Bhayangkara FC, Bhayangkara FC taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- Dewa United — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Bhayangkara FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Dewa United or Bhayangkara FC?
The MatchSense model gives Dewa United the highest probability at 69.7%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Dewa United and Bhayangkara FC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1.
What happened the last time Dewa United played Bhayangkara FC?
They last met on 1 March 2026, Dewa United 0-2 Bhayangkara FC. Across both meetings, Dewa United have won 0, Bhayangkara FC 2, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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