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FOOTBALLLiga 1match-preview07/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC on 11 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Dewa United at 69.3%.
  • Dewa United: 69.3%.
  • Draw: 17.7%.
  • Bhayangkara FC: 13.0%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • Dewa United are 6th in the table, Bhayangkara FC 10th.
  • These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Dewa United welcome Bhayangkara FC on 11 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

In the Liga 1 table, Dewa United are 6th and Bhayangkara FC 10th, 2 points between them.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
Dewa United69.3%
Draw17.7%
Bhayangkara FC13.0%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

How both sides arrive

Dewa United bring a record of 7-1-2 from their last 10, conceding just 0.6 a game. Across their last 10, Bhayangkara FC show 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats, scoring 2.2 a game.

The head-to-head

The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 1 March 2026: Dewa United 0-2 Bhayangkara FC, Bhayangkara FC taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Dewa United or Bhayangkara FC?

The MatchSense model gives Dewa United the highest probability at 69.3%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.

When do Dewa United and Bhayangkara FC play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 11 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1.

Which markets are analysed for Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Dewa United played Bhayangkara FC?

They last met on 1 March 2026, Dewa United 0-2 Bhayangkara FC. Across both meetings, Dewa United have won 0, Bhayangkara FC 2, with 0 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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