FOOTBALLPrimeira Ligamatch-recap14/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Famalicao vs Alverca Result: 1-4 — How the Model Called It, 12 October 2026
Famalicao vs Alverca finished 1-4 on 12 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Famalicao 1-4 Alverca.
- Result: Alverca.
- The model gave this outcome a 19.3% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Famalicao 1-4 Alverca in Primeira Liga, 12 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Famalicao vs Alverca these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Famalicao | 54.1% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Alverca | 19.3% |
The model made Famalicao the most likely outcome at 54.1%. What happened was Alverca, which it gave 19.3%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Famalicao vs Alverca analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Primeira Liga table and fixtures
- Famalicao — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Alverca — Profile, squad and fixtures
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