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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview11/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities for 14 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution on 14 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is FC Cincinnati at 51.6%.
  • FC Cincinnati: 51.6%.
  • New England Revolution: 24.0%.
  • Draw: 22.6%.
  • 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • FC Cincinnati are 9th in the table, New England Revolution 4th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

FC Cincinnati take on New England Revolution on 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

FC Cincinnati come into this 9th in the Major League Soccer table with 36 points; New England Revolution are 4th on 46 points.

What the model makes of it

OutcomeModel probability
FC Cincinnati51.6%
New England Revolution24.0%
Draw22.6%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

Recent form

Across their last 10, FC Cincinnati show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded. New England Revolution have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.7 scored and 1.6 conceded.

The head-to-head

Across 3 meetings it is close: 2 to FC Cincinnati, 1 to New England Revolution, 0 drawn. They last met on 15 March 2026: New England Revolution 6-1 FC Cincinnati, New England Revolution taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, FC Cincinnati or New England Revolution?

The MatchSense model gives FC Cincinnati the highest probability at 51.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time FC Cincinnati played New England Revolution?

They last met on 15 March 2026, New England Revolution 6-1 FC Cincinnati. Across 3 meetings, FC Cincinnati have won 2, New England Revolution 1, with 0 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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