FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 27 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC on 27 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is FC Dallas at 38.1%.
- FC Dallas: 38.1%.
- Los Angeles FC: 34.0%.
- Draw: 28.0%.
- FC Dallas are 4th in the table, Los Angeles FC 6th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
FC Dallas take on Los Angeles FC on 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Major League Soccer table, FC Dallas are 4th and Los Angeles FC 6th, 3 points between them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 38.1% |
| Los Angeles FC | 34.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
FC Dallas have gone 5 matches without defeat, keeping 2 clean sheets. Los Angeles FC bring a record of 2-5-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
When these two have met
Across 3 meetings it is close: 0 to FC Dallas, 2 to Los Angeles FC, 1 drawn. They last met on 8 March 2026: Los Angeles FC 1-0 FC Dallas, Los Angeles FC taking it.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- FC Dallas — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Los Angeles FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, FC Dallas or Los Angeles FC?
The MatchSense model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 38.1%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do FC Dallas and Los Angeles FC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time FC Dallas played Los Angeles FC?
They last met on 8 March 2026, Los Angeles FC 1-0 FC Dallas. Across 3 meetings, FC Dallas have won 0, Los Angeles FC 2, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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