FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is FC Dallas at 49.5%.
- FC Dallas: 49.5%.
- Portland Timbers: 26.9%.
- Draw: 23.6%.
- FC Dallas are 4th in the table, Portland Timbers 8th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
FC Dallas take on Portland Timbers on 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
FC Dallas sit 4th in the Major League Soccer table on 37 points from 23 games, with Portland Timbers 8th on 31 points.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 49.5% |
| Portland Timbers | 26.9% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
FC Dallas have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.0 a game. Portland Timbers have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, scoring 2.3 a game.
Previous meetings
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to FC Dallas, 0 to Portland Timbers, 2 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 23 July 2026, Portland Timbers drawing 2-2.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- FC Dallas — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Portland Timbers — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, FC Dallas or Portland Timbers?
The MatchSense model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 49.5%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do FC Dallas and Portland Timbers play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time FC Dallas played Portland Timbers?
They last met on 23 July 2026, Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas. Across 3 meetings, FC Dallas have won 1, Portland Timbers 0, with 2 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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