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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview09/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is FC Dallas at 47.9%.
  • FC Dallas: 47.9%.
  • Portland Timbers: 27.0%.
  • Draw: 25.1%.
  • 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • FC Dallas are 4th in the table, Portland Timbers 8th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

FC Dallas take on Portland Timbers on 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

FC Dallas sit 4th in the Major League Soccer table on 40 points from 24 games, with Portland Timbers 8th on 32 points.

What the model makes of it

OutcomeModel probability
FC Dallas47.9%
Portland Timbers27.0%
Draw25.1%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

Recent form

FC Dallas have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, averaging 1.9 scored and 2.0 conceded. Portland Timbers have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.4 a game.

Previous meetings

Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to FC Dallas, 0 to Portland Timbers, 2 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 23 July 2026, Portland Timbers drawing 2-2.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, FC Dallas or Portland Timbers?

The MatchSense model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 47.9%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do FC Dallas and Portland Timbers play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time FC Dallas played Portland Timbers?

They last met on 23 July 2026, Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas. Across 3 meetings, FC Dallas have won 1, Portland Timbers 0, with 2 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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