Fulham vs Hull City Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Fulham vs Hull City on 17 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Fulham at 47.3%.
- Fulham: 47.3%.
- Draw: 28.0%.
- Hull City: 24.7%.
- Fulham are 20th in the table, Hull City 8th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Fulham host Hull City on 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Premier League table, Fulham are 20th and Hull City 8th, 7 points between them — 12 places apart in a 20-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Fulham | 47.3% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Hull City | 24.7% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Fulham have lost 6 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Hull City bring a record of 3-5-2 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Fulham vs Hull City analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Fulham — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Hull City — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Fulham or Hull City?
The MatchSense model gives Fulham the highest probability at 47.3%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Fulham and Hull City play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League.
What form are Fulham and Hull City in?
Fulham have lost 6 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Hull City have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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