Garudayaksa vs Arema FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Garudayaksa vs Arema FC on 17 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Arema FC at 40.0%.
- Arema FC: 40.0%.
- Garudayaksa: 33.8%.
- Draw: 26.2%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Garudayaksa are 15th in the table, Arema FC 10th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Garudayaksa take on Arema FC on 17 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Garudayaksa sit 15th in the Liga 1 table on 2 points from 4 games, with Arema FC 10th on 6 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Arema FC | 40.0% |
| Garudayaksa | 33.8% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Garudayaksa are still without a win in 4, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Arema FC are unbeaten in 7, scoring 2.3 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Garudayaksa vs Arema FC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- Garudayaksa — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Arema FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Garudayaksa or Arema FC?
The MatchSense model gives Arema FC the highest probability at 40.0%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Garudayaksa and Arema FC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 17 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.
Which markets are analysed for Garudayaksa vs Arema FC?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Garudayaksa and Arema FC in?
Garudayaksa are still without a win in 4, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Arema FC stretch an unbeaten run of 7 into this one, scoring 2.3 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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