Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Genoa vs Fiorentina on 10 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Fiorentina at 45.8%.
- Fiorentina: 45.8%.
- Genoa: 29.3%.
- Draw: 24.8%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Genoa are 19th in the table, Fiorentina 17th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Genoa take on Fiorentina on 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Genoa come into this 19th in the Serie A table with 1 point; Fiorentina are 17th on 4 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 45.8% |
| Genoa | 29.3% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Genoa come in with 6 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Fiorentina show 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
5 previous meetings split 0-3-2 in Genoa's favour on the head-to-head. They last met on 10 May 2026, Fiorentina drawing 0-0.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Genoa vs Fiorentina analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Genoa — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Fiorentina — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Genoa or Fiorentina?
The MatchSense model gives Fiorentina the highest probability at 45.8%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Genoa and Fiorentina play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Genoa played Fiorentina?
They last met on 10 May 2026, Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa. Across 5 meetings, Genoa have won 0, Fiorentina 2, with 3 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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