Genoa vs Juventus Prediction — Model Probabilities for 28 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Genoa vs Juventus on 28 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Juventus at 57.2%.
- Juventus: 57.2%.
- Draw: 26.4%.
- Genoa: 16.3%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Genoa are 17th in the table, Juventus 8th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Genoa host Juventus on 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC in Serie A. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Genoa come into this 17th in the Serie A table with 4 points; Juventus are 8th on 11 points — 9 places apart in a 20-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Juventus | 57.2% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Genoa | 16.3% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Genoa have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Juventus bring a record of 5-3-2 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
Juventus have dominated the meetings, taking 4 of 4. The most recent meeting came on 6 April 2026: Juventus 2-0 Genoa, Juventus taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Genoa vs Juventus analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Genoa — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Juventus — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Genoa or Juventus?
The MatchSense model gives Juventus the highest probability at 57.2%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Genoa and Juventus play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for Genoa vs Juventus?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Genoa played Juventus?
They last met on 6 April 2026, Juventus 2-0 Genoa. Across 4 meetings, Genoa have won 0, Juventus 4, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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