FOOTBALLPremier Leaguematch-preview01/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Hull City vs Aston Villa on 5 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
Hull City are 3rd in the table, Aston Villa 17th.
The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Hull City take on Aston Villa on 5 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Premier League. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.

Hull City come into this 3rd in the Premier League table with 7 points; Aston Villa are 17th on 1 point — 14 places apart in a 20-team competition.

How both sides arrive

Hull City have won their last 3, keeping 3 clean sheets. Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Hull City vs Aston Villa analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Premier League table and fixtures
Hull City — Profile, squad and fixtures
Aston Villa — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

When do Hull City and Aston Villa play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 5 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Premier League.

Which markets are analysed for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are Hull City and Aston Villa in?

Hull City arrive on a run of 3 straight wins, keeping 3 clean sheets. Aston Villa bring a record of 4-1-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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