Tottenham vs Everton Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Tottenham vs Everton on 12 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Tottenham at 45.0%.
- Tottenham: 45.0%.
- Everton: 28.2%.
- Draw: 26.7%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Tottenham are 18th in the table, Everton 8th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Tottenham take on Everton on 12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Premier League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Tottenham sit 18th in the Premier League table on 1 point from 3 games, with Everton 8th on 5 points — 10 places apart in a 20-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Tottenham | 45.0% |
| Everton | 28.2% |
| Draw | 26.7% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Tottenham bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Everton show 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
The head-to-head
Tottenham have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of 4. Their previous meeting was on 24 May 2026: Tottenham 1-0 Everton, Tottenham taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Tottenham vs Everton analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Tottenham — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Everton — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Tottenham or Everton?
The MatchSense model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 45.0%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Tottenham and Everton play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Premier League.
Which markets are analysed for Tottenham vs Everton?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Tottenham played Everton?
They last met on 24 May 2026, Tottenham 1-0 Everton. Across 4 meetings, Tottenham have won 3, Everton 1, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
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