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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview11/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Inter Miami vs New York City FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 14 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Inter Miami vs New York City FC on 14 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Inter Miami at 59.1%.
  • Inter Miami: 59.1%.
  • Draw: 21.4%.
  • New York City FC: 19.6%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Inter Miami are 2nd in the table, New York City FC 10th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Inter Miami welcome New York City FC on 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

Inter Miami sit 2nd in the Major League Soccer table on 49 points from 28 games, with New York City FC 10th on 33 points — 8 places apart in a 15-team competition.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
Inter Miami59.1%
Draw21.4%
New York City FC19.6%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

What each side brings into this

Inter Miami have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, scoring 2.3 a game. New York City FC bring a record of 1-4-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.

Previous meetings

Inter Miami lead the series 3-2-0. They last met on 22 March 2026: New York City FC 2-3 Inter Miami, Inter Miami taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Inter Miami or New York City FC?

The MatchSense model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 59.1%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do Inter Miami and New York City FC play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for Inter Miami vs New York City FC?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Inter Miami played New York City FC?

They last met on 22 March 2026, New York City FC 2-3 Inter Miami. Across 5 meetings, Inter Miami have won 3, New York City FC 0, with 2 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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