Lincoln vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Lincoln vs Burnley on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Burnley at 36.4%.
- Burnley: 36.4%.
- Lincoln: 33.0%.
- Draw: 30.6%.
- Lincoln are 18th in the table, Burnley 22nd.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Lincoln welcome Burnley on 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Championship table, Lincoln are 18th and Burnley 22nd, 4 points between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley | 36.4% |
| Lincoln | 33.0% |
| Draw | 30.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Lincoln have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Burnley bring a record of 1-4-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Lincoln vs Burnley analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Lincoln — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Lincoln or Burnley?
The MatchSense model gives Burnley the highest probability at 36.4%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Lincoln and Burnley play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship.
What form are Lincoln and Burnley in?
Lincoln have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Burnley have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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