Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo on 11 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Minnesota United FC at 44.7%.
- Minnesota United FC: 44.7%.
- Houston Dynamo: 30.2%.
- Draw: 25.1%.
- Minnesota United FC are 14th in the table, Houston Dynamo 5th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Minnesota United FC host Houston Dynamo on 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Minnesota United FC come into this 14th in the Major League Soccer table with 29 points; Houston Dynamo are 5th on 44 points — 9 places apart in a 15-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 44.7% |
| Houston Dynamo | 30.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Minnesota United FC have lost 6 of their last 10, scoring 2.3 a game. Houston Dynamo bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, conceding just 0.8 a game.
When these two have met
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to Minnesota United FC, 1 to Houston Dynamo, 1 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 26 June 2025: Minnesota United FC 3-1 Houston Dynamo, Minnesota United FC taking it.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Minnesota United FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Houston Dynamo — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Minnesota United FC or Houston Dynamo?
The MatchSense model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 44.7%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Minnesota United FC played Houston Dynamo?
They last met on 26 June 2025, Minnesota United FC 3-1 Houston Dynamo. Across 3 meetings, Minnesota United FC have won 1, Houston Dynamo 1, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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