Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Napoli vs AS Roma on 24 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Napoli at 39.7%.
- Napoli: 39.7%.
- AS Roma: 30.3%.
- Draw: 30.0%.
- Napoli are 9th in the table, AS Roma 3rd.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Napoli welcome AS Roma on 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Napoli come into this 9th in the Serie A table with 10 points; AS Roma are 3rd on 17 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Napoli | 39.7% |
| AS Roma | 30.3% |
| Draw | 30.0% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Napoli bring a record of 4-1-5 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. AS Roma bring a record of 6-3-1 from their last 10, scoring 2.4 a game.
The head-to-head
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 30 November 2025: AS Roma 0-1 Napoli, Napoli taking it.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Napoli vs AS Roma analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Napoli — Profile, squad and fixtures
- AS Roma — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Napoli or AS Roma?
The MatchSense model gives Napoli the highest probability at 39.7%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Napoli and AS Roma play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A.
What happened the last time Napoli played AS Roma?
They last met on 30 November 2025, AS Roma 0-1 Napoli. In their one previous meeting, Napoli have won 1, AS Roma 0, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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