Nashville SC vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 27 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Nashville SC vs Toronto FC on 27 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Nashville SC at 60.1%.
- Nashville SC: 60.1%.
- Draw: 21.7%.
- Toronto FC: 18.2%.
- Nashville SC are 1st in the table, Toronto FC 12th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Nashville SC take on Toronto FC on 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Major League Soccer table, Nashville SC are 1st and Toronto FC 12th, 28 points between them — 11 places apart in a 15-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 60.1% |
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Toronto FC | 18.2% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Nashville SC have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.0 a game. Toronto FC have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, averaging 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
When these two have met
Across 3 meetings it is close: 2 to Nashville SC, 1 to Toronto FC, 0 drawn. They last met on 9 September 2026: Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SC, Toronto FC taking it.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Nashville SC vs Toronto FC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Nashville SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Toronto FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Nashville SC or Toronto FC?
The MatchSense model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 60.1%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Nashville SC and Toronto FC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Nashville SC played Toronto FC?
They last met on 9 September 2026, Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SC. Across 3 meetings, Nashville SC have won 2, Toronto FC 1, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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