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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview06/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders on 10 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is New England Revolution at 45.5%.
  • New England Revolution: 45.5%.
  • Seattle Sounders: 30.0%.
  • Draw: 24.5%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • New England Revolution come in on 5-1-4 from their last 10.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

New England Revolution host Seattle Sounders on 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
New England Revolution45.5%
Seattle Sounders30.0%
Draw24.5%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

What each side brings into this

New England Revolution have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded. Seattle Sounders have won their last 3, keeping 2 clean sheets.

When these two have met

The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 7 July 2024: Seattle Sounders 2-0 New England Revolution, Seattle Sounders taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Where the numbers come from

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, New England Revolution or Seattle Sounders?

The MatchSense model gives New England Revolution the highest probability at 45.5%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do New England Revolution and Seattle Sounders play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time New England Revolution played Seattle Sounders?

They last met on 7 July 2024, Seattle Sounders 2-0 New England Revolution. In their one previous meeting, New England Revolution have won 0, Seattle Sounders 1, with 0 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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