New York City FC vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for New York City FC vs New England Revolution on 10 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is New York City FC at 40.1%.
- New York City FC: 40.1%.
- New England Revolution: 32.7%.
- Draw: 27.2%.
- 4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- New York City FC are 7th in the table, New England Revolution 4th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
New York City FC welcome New England Revolution on 10 September 2026, 00:00 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
New York City FC sit 7th in the Major League Soccer table on 29 points from 23 games, with New England Revolution 4th on 37 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| New York City FC | 40.1% |
| New England Revolution | 32.7% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
How both sides arrive
New York City FC bring a record of 2-5-3 from their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. Across their last 10, New England Revolution show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
3 previous meetings split 1-1-1 in New York City FC's favour on the head-to-head. They last met on 23 August 2026, New England Revolution drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full New York City FC vs New England Revolution analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- New York City FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
- New England Revolution — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, New York City FC or New England Revolution?
The MatchSense model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 40.1%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do New York City FC and New England Revolution play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 September 2026, 00:00 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time New York City FC played New England Revolution?
They last met on 23 August 2026, New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC. Across 3 meetings, New York City FC have won 1, New England Revolution 1, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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