New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego on 10 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is San Diego at 38.8%.
- San Diego: 38.8%.
- New York Red Bulls: 37.3%.
- Draw: 23.9%.
- New York Red Bulls come in on 3-2-5 from their last 10.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
New York Red Bulls take on San Diego on 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| San Diego | 38.8% |
| New York Red Bulls | 37.3% |
| Draw | 23.9% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
New York Red Bulls have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, San Diego show 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full New York Red Bulls vs San Diego analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- New York Red Bulls — Profile, squad and fixtures
- San Diego — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, New York Red Bulls or San Diego?
The MatchSense model gives San Diego the highest probability at 38.8%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do New York Red Bulls and San Diego play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What form are New York Red Bulls and San Diego in?
New York Red Bulls bring a record of 3-2-5 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. San Diego have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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